Gartner：IT支出下滑甚于網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅期

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Gartner報(bào)告說(shuō)，2009年全球IT開支預(yù)算將比前一年下滑近4%，業(yè)界觀察家認(rèn)為目前的衰退將會(huì)比2001年網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破滅后造成更大的損失。

Gartner全球預(yù)測(cè)研究副總裁Richard Gordon在周二舉行的一個(gè)宣布開支預(yù)測(cè)研究結(jié)果的電話會(huì)議上說(shuō)：“IT市場(chǎng)的下滑將會(huì) 比2001年更為嚴(yán)重，2001年的下滑主要與高科技有關(guān)。今天，人們普遍降低了對(duì)各類產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的需求，IT支出當(dāng)然也未能幸免。”

Gartner報(bào)告說(shuō)，全球IT支出將會(huì)在2009年達(dá)到大約3.2萬(wàn)億美元，相比2008年的3.3萬(wàn)億美元，增長(zhǎng)幅度下降了3.8%，而2008年比2007年增長(zhǎng)了6.1%。該研究公司向下調(diào)整了各個(gè)行業(yè)的開支預(yù)測(cè)，并把開支削減歸因于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。2001年的IT支出有2.1%的下降幅度。

Gordon說(shuō)：“經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)對(duì)IT支出的影響變得更加明晰。隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)大幅度下降，IT部門正在削減預(yù)算，消費(fèi)者也在削減開支。2009年第一季度證明了主要市場(chǎng)和供應(yīng)商已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了衰退?！?/P>

特別是硬件市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)?009年對(duì)硬件進(jìn)行投入的企業(yè)變少了，導(dǎo)致硬件市場(chǎng)有了近15%的下滑，預(yù)計(jì)2009年硬件市場(chǎng)支出為3243億美元，而2008年的硬件支出是3810億美元。軟件支出將是持平，為2226億美元。IT服務(wù)的支出將會(huì)下降1.7%，總支出達(dá)到7960億美元。對(duì)于電信部門，Gartner預(yù)計(jì)將會(huì)有近3%的開支減少，總投資為1.9萬(wàn)億美元。

Gordon解釋說(shuō)，盡管政府承諾會(huì)長(zhǎng)期刺激IT市場(chǎng)，他們卻無(wú)法彌補(bǔ)“暗淡的短期前景”。全球金融市場(chǎng)尚未穩(wěn)定，這意味著IT買家沒(méi)有足夠的信心來(lái)投資他們的預(yù)算。

Gordon說(shuō)：“經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況繼續(xù)侵蝕所有地區(qū)的企業(yè)的信心。市場(chǎng)依然存在著一般意義上的不確定性，因危機(jī)造成的有毒債務(wù)的實(shí)際數(shù)額也不明確。IT組織將會(huì)尋求新的方式，把支出從資本投資轉(zhuǎn)移到提高運(yùn)營(yíng)效率上來(lái)。”

IT spending drop-off worse than after dot.com bust, Gartner reports

Global IT spending is expected to decline nearly 4% in 2009 over the previous year as industry watchers confirm the current recession will see more losses than the dot-com bust in 2001, Gartner reports.

"The IT market slowdown will be worse than 2001, that downturn was tech-related. Today there is a general slowdown in demand for products and services across the board and IT spending is not immune," said Richard Gordon, research vice president of global forecasting at Gartner, Tuesday on a conference call announcing the spending forecast.

Gartner reported that global IT spending will reach about $3.2 trillion in 2009, a 3.8% decline in growth from the $3.3 trillion spent in 2008 -- which marked a 6.1% growth over 2007. The research firm adjusted its spending forecast downward across all segments, attributing the cutback in spending to the economic recession. IT spending in 2001 saw a 2.1% decline, according to Gartner.

"The impact on IT spending is becoming clearer. As global economies continue to decline sharply, IT departments are trimming budgets and consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending," Gordon said. "The first quarter of 2009 provided confirmation that key markets and vendors have entered a recession."

Hardware in particular will see a nearly 15% decline as fewer companies invest in 2009 and are expected to spend $324.3 billion, compared with $381 billion spent on hardware in 2008. Software spending will be about flat at $222.6 billion. IT services will decline 1.7% with total spending reaching about $796 billion. As for the telecom sector, Gartner expects to see a nearly 3% decline in spending with total investments reaching $1.9 trillion.

Despite the promise of government stimulus packages in the long term, Gordon explained, they won’t be able to offset the "bleak near-term outlook." Global financial markets have yet to stabilize, and that means IT buyers aren’t confident on where to invest their budget dollars.

"Economic conditions have continued to erode business confidence in all regions. There is a continued general sense of uncertainty in the market and a lack of clarity of actual amount of toxic debt out there," Gordon said. "IT organizations will look for ways to shift spending from capital expenditures to operational efficiencies."   （網(wǎng)界網(wǎng)）